Opening Bell: U.S. Seeks Narrow Trade Deals Ahead of Trump’s Tariff Deadline
Good Morning!
On Monday, the S&P 500 closed at 6,204.95, up 0.16%, while the NASDAQ was up 0.02%, closing at 20,369.73. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the session at 44,094.77, up 0.13%.
Crypto Highlights
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently trading at $107,123.99, down 0.27% over the past 24 hours.
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Earnings Today
There are no significant earnings announcements scheduled for today.
Headlines
U.S. Seeks Narrow Trade Deals Ahead of Trump’s Tariff Deadline
With a July 9 deadline fast approaching, the Biden administration is shifting its trade strategy by pursuing narrower, phased agreements instead of sweeping reciprocal deals originally promised under Donald Trump’s tariff pause. The administration had aimed for 90 trade deals in 90 days, but now seeks "agreements in principle" with key countries to stave off the reimposition of harsh tariffs. Countries that strike such limited deals could avoid broader penalties but would still face existing 10% levies as negotiations on unresolved issues continue.
This more flexible approach reflects both political pressure and logistical complexity. While negotiators attempt to avoid disruption, Trump has simultaneously threatened new tariffs and withdrawn from talks with Canada, prompting Ottawa to scrap its digital services tax. Meanwhile, trade discussions are being hampered by uncertainty over potential sector-specific tariffs—some as high as 50%—and legal challenges to Trump’s prior use of emergency powers. Officials expect a flurry of last-minute deals, but it remains unclear whether Trump will extend the deadline or proceed with imposing broader tariffs on reluctant trading partners.
Trump's Big Bill Threatens to Raise Clean Energy Industry Taxes by Up to $7 Billion, Trade Group Says
Senate Republicans have introduced a controversial draft of a domestic spending bill that could significantly impact the renewable energy sector. The proposed legislation would impose new taxes on clean energy projects using Chinese components and phase out crucial tax credits for wind and solar power projects after 2027. According to the American Clean Power Association, this could increase the industry's financial burden by $4 billion to $7 billion.
The implications of this bill are far-reaching, with industry leaders expressing serious concerns. "At the end of the day, it's a new tax in a package that is designed to reduce the tax burden of companies across the American economy," stated John Hensley, senior vice president for market analysis at the American Clean Power Association. The construction industry warns that nearly 2 million building trades jobs could be at risk, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized the bill, stating, "The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country."
Eurozone Inflation Rises to ECB’s 2% Target
Eurozone inflation reached the European Central Bank’s target of 2% in June, up slightly from May’s 1.9%, aligning with economist forecasts. While the increase was modest, analysts such as Diego Iscaro of S&P Global Market Intelligence suggested the ECB may still consider one final rate cut in September. The ECB, which has already halved rates to 2% since last summer, is expected to hold them steady at its July meeting. Core inflation remained at 2.3%, while services inflation — a key indicator of domestic pressure — ticked up to 3.3%.
Despite temporary oil price surges following military conflict between Israel and Iran, the euro remained stable at $1.181. The currency has appreciated 14% against the dollar this year, helping ease import-driven inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently indicated that the monetary policy tightening cycle is nearing its end. Markets currently see only a 10% chance of a rate cut in July, according to swap-implied expectations.
Jewelry Sales Outperform as U.S. Luxury Spending Falters, Citi Report Finds
A new Citigroup report based on credit card data reveals a notable divergence in U.S. luxury spending trends. While overall spending on luxury goods has slipped in the first five months of 2025 compared to last year, luxury jewelry has remained a standout category. Jewelry spending surged 10.1% in May alone, continuing a streak of year-over-year gains since September. Unlike other segments, such as handbags and ready-to-wear, jewelry also saw an increase in the number of buyers, not just the average spend per customer. Citi analyst Thomas Chauvet attributes this strength to jewelry’s dual appeal as both an emotional and investment purchase, especially in the context of rising gold prices.
Despite a smaller-than-feared decline in May, broader luxury consumption has yet to rebound convincingly. Handbag sales, in particular, are struggling under the weight of steep price hikes and limited innovation, while watch spending shows uneven momentum. Chauvet remains cautious about declaring a turning point, citing external risks such as a weakening dollar, looming tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. For now, jewelry continues to shine as the rare luxury category attracting both returning and new consumers amid economic uncertainty.
U.S. Senate Overwhelmingly Rejects Federal Ban on State AI Regulation
In a decisive 99-to-1 vote, the U.S. Senate rejected a controversial provision that would have imposed a 10-year ban on state-level regulation of artificial intelligence. The amendment, part of former President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, was backed by major technology firms seeking to avoid a patchwork of state regulations they argued could hinder innovation and competitiveness with China. However, the Senate’s overwhelming support for stripping the clause reflects growing bipartisan concern over unchecked AI development and the risks of leaving oversight solely to federal or industry hands.
The vote followed intense debate within the Republican Party and criticism from AI safety advocates, who warned that relying on corporate self-regulation could have dire social consequences. While Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick advocated for a five-year compromise ban to balance innovation with oversight, senators opted instead for a clear signal that states should retain the authority to act.
Small Boat Crossings to U.K. Hit Record High in First Half of 2025
Nearly 20,000 people arrived in the U.K. via small boats in the first half of 2025, marking a record surge in irregular migration and presenting a serious challenge to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. The figure—19,982 arrivals—surpasses previous records for the first six months of the year and underscores growing pressure on Starmer, who has vowed to dismantle human smuggling operations and end the use of hotels to house asylum seekers. His government is also negotiating a pilot agreement with France that would allow for a reciprocal exchange of asylum seekers between the two countries.
Robinhood Launches Tokenized U.S. Stock Trading for EU Investors
Robinhood has introduced a new suite of blockchain-based tokens allowing European Union customers to trade over 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs — including tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft — around the clock, five days a week. The move, revealed at the company’s keynote event in France, marks a significant step in blending traditional equities with crypto-style trading. The tokens, issued in partnership with blockchain firm Arbitrum, are commission-free and will soon include offerings tied to private companies such as OpenAI and SpaceX. Robinhood’s stock surged nearly 10% following the announcement, reaching a record high.
Cloudflare Launches a Marketplace That Lets Websites Charge AI Bots for Scraping
Cloudflare has introduced a groundbreaking marketplace called "Pay per Crawl" that fundamentally changes how websites and AI companies interact. The cloud infrastructure provider, which serves 20% of the web, is launching this experimental platform in private beta, allowing website owners to monetize AI bot scraping by charging micropayments for each crawl. The system gives publishers unprecedented control over their content distribution and compensation in the AI era.
According to Cloudflare's recent data, the current scraping-to-referral ratio heavily favors AI companies, with OpenAI's crawler scraping websites 17,000 times for every referral, and Anthropic's ratio reaching 73,000 scrapes per referral. "The true potential of Pay per Crawl may emerge in an 'agentic' future," Cloudflare stated in their blog post, envisioning a system where AI agents could operate with budgets to acquire relevant content programmatically. Several major publishers, including Conde Nast, TIME, The Associated Press, and The Atlantic, have already joined the initiative by blocking AI crawlers by default, supporting a permission-based approach to content access.
Google Agrees Deal to Buy Power from Planned Nuclear Fusion Plant
In a groundbreaking development for the future of clean energy, Google has entered into an agreement to purchase electricity from a planned nuclear fusion facility, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of fusion power. This pioneering deal represents one of the first commercial arrangements for fusion-generated electricity, demonstrating growing corporate confidence in the emerging technology.
The agreement highlights the tech giant's commitment to innovative clean energy solutions and its role in accelerating the development of breakthrough technologies. "This is a critical step toward bringing fusion energy to the commercial market," stated the project developers, emphasizing how such corporate backing could help accelerate the timeline for making fusion power a practical reality. The deal also signals growing private sector interest in fusion technology, which promises to provide abundant, clean energy without the long-term radioactive waste associated with traditional nuclear fission.
Apple Weighs Using Anthropic or OpenAI to Power Siri in Major Strategy Shift
In a significant departure from its traditional in-house development approach, Apple is exploring partnerships with AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI to enhance Siri's capabilities. The tech giant has initiated discussions with both companies about utilizing their large language models (LLMs), requesting them to test versions of their technology on Apple's cloud infrastructure.
The strategic consideration comes amid reports of delays in Apple's internal AI improvements for Siri, now pushed to 2026. This potential collaboration marks a notable shift in Apple's AI strategy, following recent executive restructuring that saw Mike Rockwell taking charge of Siri. Software chief Craig Federighi has already signaled openness to external AI partnerships, announcing that Apple will offer both its own and OpenAI's code completion tools in Apple developer software. The news had a positive impact on Apple's stock, which closed 2% higher despite earlier downward trading.
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